Wednesday, 8 December 2010

Ireland - Remember Argentina


As Ireland faces the consequences of its economical difficulties and the harsh demands expected to come from its lenders, perhaps it should remember the case of Argentina.

When it faced financial ruin in 2001, it pulled out its middle finger and told the supposed saving grace known by the three famous letters I, M, and F (whose negligence had been one of the causes of Argentina’s problems in the first place), to pretty much stick it with the ridiculous austerity measures it tried to force on the country. Argentina spent the next five years enjoying an average growth in GDP of 8.5%.

For those who can’t recall the details of Argentina’s absolute meltdown in 2001, the somewhat basic history is this.

The Eighties and Nineties

After a return to democracy in 1983, the Argentine government of Alfonsín borrowed huge amounts of money. When the country struggled to repay the loans, confidence in the new currency, the Austral, was lost and inflation went through the roof. In July 1989 it was 200% alone, reaching a total of 5000% for the year.

To cope with the hyperinflation, Argentines would spend nearly every cent of their pay-check the same day they received it. If not, their hard earned cash would be worth nearly nothing by the next day as shop prices literally went up by the hour.

Desperate measures were necessary and in 1990, with a new government and mandate, the Argentine peso was restored, and so started the notorious experiment with convertibility. One Argentine peso was fixed as equal to one US dollar, and any citizen was able to exchange any amount of pesos to dollars as they pleased.   

Argentines smiled.

Get your pay-check in pesos, change it to dollars, stick it somewhere safe, travel abroad and feel rich all of a sudden. Everything in neighbouring Brazil for example was now dirt cheap with dollars in your hands, and Argentines could not only afford cheap imports, but were able to take out low interest loans in US dollars.  

On the surface, life was rosy in the nineties. But behind the scenes problems were bubbling away.

Inflation was soon back. And with prices for many consumer goods now lower in the USA, the famous expression ‘dame dos’, (give me two), took hold as Argentines marvelled at the cheaper shop prices abroad.

Cheap imports meant money was pouring out of the country, while dollar prices in Argentina meant the economy could not compete with other developing nations and so the export market crumbled. The country still had massive debts and South America’s old friend, the IMF, recklessly continued lending to Argentina, postponing payment dates and allowing the problem to brew.

The fund also put in place structural adjustment programmes so severe that they only served to lower GDP by 10%, and in 1999 Argentina entered recession. With corruption rife, huge unemployment and economic deflation, it all came crashing down with the 2001 crisis.

The Crisis

As investors lost faith in the country, money started flowing out across the borders. Suspicious and fearful of yet more financial problems, there was a run on the banks as Argentines withdrew their savings and also sent it abroad. The government reacted by freezing all bank accounts for twelve months; an act that became known as the corralito.

With mass protests and an economy spiralling out of control, a state of emergency was declared. Argentina defaulted on $95bn of debt and by 2002 the convertibility experiment was finally called off.

Argentines rushed to the banks in attempts to get out any pesos they had, and exchange them before the devaluation, but the banks literally closed their doors as they were left cashless.

Almost overnight, the national currency was devalued from one peso for a dollar, to four pesos for a dollar. 

Furthermore, the economy ministry declared that any dollars in bank accounts would be converted to pesos at the new rate of 4:1, and so the entire life savings of hundreds of thousands of Argentines pretty much disappeared.

The initial consequence was disastrous. Riots and looting ensued, and when half the entire population fell below the poverty line, unemployed and broke; a barter economy was born with second hand clothes exchanged for basic services, and home-baked bread for meat. It was even common to see those with nothing to trade eating from the rubbish bins outside McDonalds.

The situation was dire and the IMF saw the opportunity to enforce further neo-liberal policies and austerity cuts. As with the current situation in Europe, many suggested their policy of making the workers pay for a mess they had nothing to do with, was entirely politically motivated.

But in 2003, with newly elected president Nestor Kirchner, Argentina grew a pair. They refused any further help from the IMF, paid off the debt and told the un-elected and foreign monetary advisors to get the hell out of the country. Argentina would be governed by Argentina, and with some shrewd policies, the economy recovered.

Turning your back on the ECB in Europe and going it alone would not be so easy for Ireland. In Argentina it seemed to work, but despite its recent economic success; with the IMF constantly making bogus economic projections, combined with the old problems of corruption and inflation, the longevity of Argentina's prosperous situation is forever in doubt.

There's a general consensus here that a crisis hits the country every ten years. 2011 will tell.

109 comments:

  1. Reading that reminds me of being in class with Mr. Blanco. Well researched article, che.

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  2. Good work!
    These events should be remembered as a template for a disaster later down the road. Ultimately, everything depends on confidence: exchange rates pegged to whatever vanish in thin air if confidence in a country and its economy evaporates.
    The big question in Europe today is how can governments like Ireland pay off debt - of their own or that of their banks. The single currency negates them the option to simply turn on the printing press to create more (paper) money.

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  3. Great stuff. It's not just Ireland though - Greece obviously, as well as Portugal and Italy are in a mess. Moody's has just downgraded Spain's credit rating also (although what notice anyone should take of a credit rating agency that classified banks with massive sub-prime exposure as AAA rated right up until Lehman's collapsed is another debate).

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  62. How I already got my Xmas and business loan.

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  67. How I already got my Xmas and business loan.

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    skype;info.amicusfinance

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  89. We can deliver financial services instrument(BG/SBLC/MTN/DLC/LC) at affordable price to our customers in other to derive maximum utility. We understand that finding the right company to provide financial instrument is not easy. We are certified financial company that delivers banking instrument for lease which we adhere to our terms and condition. Over 96% of our clients are satisfied with our work whether it is business or financial service.

    I am the sole (Direct) mandate to several genuine efficient providers for lease/sales BG/ SBLC and other financial instruments, at reasonable prices, Issuance by top AAA rated Bank in Europe.Presently, we focus on BG/SBLC for Lease and Sale transactions

    Once transaction is in progress, we ensure we keep you posted on the progress of your paper. We also get you connected to the provider for personalized service. Instead of stressing yourself out looking for financial instrument or company why not let professional like us deliver financial instrument to you within the time frame required by you.

    For further details contact us with the below information....

    Contact Email: info.amicusfinance@gmail.com

    skype;info.amicusfinance

    ReplyDelete
  90. We can deliver financial services instrument(BG/SBLC/MTN/DLC/LC) at affordable price to our customers in other to derive maximum utility. We understand that finding the right company to provide financial instrument is not easy. We are certified financial company that delivers banking instrument for lease which we adhere to our terms and condition. Over 96% of our clients are satisfied with our work whether it is business or financial service.

    I am the sole (Direct) mandate to several genuine efficient providers for lease/sales BG/ SBLC and other financial instruments, at reasonable prices, Issuance by top AAA rated Bank in Europe.Presently, we focus on BG/SBLC for Lease and Sale transactions

    Once transaction is in progress, we ensure we keep you posted on the progress of your paper. We also get you connected to the provider for personalized service. Instead of stressing yourself out looking for financial instrument or company why not let professional like us deliver financial instrument to you within the time frame required by you.

    For further details contact us with the below information....

    Contact Email: info.amicusfinance@gmail.com

    skype;info.amicusfinance

    ReplyDelete
  91. We offer certified and verifiable bank instruments via Swift Transmission from a genuine provider capable
    of taking up time bound transactions.

    FOR LEASING OF BG/SBLC
    MINIMUM FACE VALUE OF BG/SBLC = EUR/USD 1M
    LEASING FEE = 4%+2%

    FOR PURCHASE OF FRESH CUT BG/SBLC
    PRICE = 32%+2%
    MINIMUM FACE VALUE OF BG/SBLC = EUR/USD 1M

    Our BG/SBLC Financing can help you get your project funded, loan financing by providing you with yearly. RWA ready to close leasing with any interested client in few banking days

    Name :ivan john

    Email :psafinanceplc@gmail.com

    ReplyDelete
  92. We are direct providers of Fresh Cut BG, SBLC and MTN which are specifically for lease/sales, our bank instrument can be engage in PPP Trading, Discounting, signature project(s) such as Aviation, Agriculture, Petroleum, Telecommunication, construction of Dams, Bridges, Real Estate and all kind of projects. We do not have any broker chain in our offer or get involved in chauffeur driven offers.

    We deliver with time and precision as sethforth in the agreement. Our terms and Conditions are reasonable, below is our instrument description.

    The procedure is very simple; the instrument will be reserved on euro clear to be verified by your bank, after verification an arrangement will be made for necessary bank documents and stock testing expenses, the cost of the Bank Guarantee/Standby Letter of Credit will be paid after the delivery of the MT760,

    Description OF INSTRUMENTS:

    Instrument: Bank Guarantee/Stand-by letter of credit (BG/SBLC)
    Total Face Value: Euro/USD 5M MIN and Euro/USD 20B MAX (Twenty Billion EURO/USD).
    Issuing Bank: HSBC Bank London, Barclay’s bank London,Credit Suisse and Deutsche Bank Frankfurt.
    Age: One Year, One Month
    Leasing Price: 6% of Face Value plus 2% commission fees to brokers while for sales 32%+2%.
    Delivery: Bank to Bank swift.
    Payment: MT-103 or MT760
    Hard Copy: Bonded Courier within 7 banking days.

    We are ready to close leasing/purchasing with any interested client in few banking days, if interested do not hesitate to contact me.

    Regards,
    Robert Francis,
    Skype: robfrancis7
    Tel/WhatsApp: +447546769978
    Email:robertfrancis767@gmail.com

    ReplyDelete
  93. GENUINE BANK GUARANTEE LETTER OF CREDIT(LC) BUSINESS LOAN AND STANDBY LETTER OF CREDIT (SBLC)
    AT THE BEST RATES AVAILABLE

    We offer certified and verifiable bank instruments via Swift Transmission from a genuine provider capable
    of taking up time bound transactions.

    FOR LEASING OF BG/SBLC
    MINIMUM FACE VALUE OF BG/SBLC = EUR/USD 1M-10B
    LEASING FEE = 4%+2%

    FOR PURCHASE OF FRESH CUT BG/SBLC
    PRICE = 32%+2%
    MINIMUM FACE VALUE OF BG/SBLC = EUR/USD 1M-10B

    MONETIZATION LTV 70%

    LOAN INTEREST RATE:3% OF THE TOTAL FACE AMOUNT

    Our BG/SBLC Financing can help you get your project funded, loan financing by providing you with yearly. we ready to close leasing with any interested client in few banking days
    Email : financeandstrategyltd@gmail.com
    Skype:cid.bb534496aa95aec5

    ReplyDelete
  94. How I got an xmas loan

    My name is Michelle Holt residing in Louisville Kentucky, I want to say a very big thank you to Mr Richard Jame Dyson of Jennard Investments Limited for granting me a xmas loan of $42,000 at 3% interest rate through their xmas loan program that is current running. You too can get your xmas and business loan from them as well. Contact them on email: jennardinvestmentslimited@outlook.com & cell phone number +1(484) 292–4513.

    ReplyDelete
  95. How I got an xmas loan

    My name is Michelle Holt residing in Louisville Kentucky, I want to say a very big thank you to Mr Richard Jame Dyson of Jennard Investments Limited for granting me a xmas loan of $42,000 at 3% interest rate through their xmas loan program that is current running. You too can get your xmas and business loan from them as well. Contact them on email: jennardinvestmentslimited@outlook.com & cell phone number +1(484) 292–4513...

    ReplyDelete
  96. How I regain my financial stability

    My name is Jeannie Rhyasen residing in Haverhill, MA. I want express my profound gratitude to Jennard Investments Limited for helping me regain my financial stability by giving me a loan of $67,500 with a 3% interest rate. I am back on my feet because of your gesture. Anyone out there in need of a loan should contact them on email: jennardinvestmentslimited@outlook.com and contact number +1(484) 292–4513..

    ReplyDelete
  97. I am the sole (Direct) mandate to several genuine efficient providers for lease/sales BG/ SBLC and other financial instruments, at reasonable prices, Issuance by top AAA rated Bank in Europe.Presently, we focus on BG/SBLC for Lease and Sale transactions, However, our Lease BG/SBLC/MTN is 3+1% and Sale at 30%+1%.

    Please request for full procedure details if interested.(WE MOVE FIRST)

    For further inquiry contact:

    Contact us for further detail:
    Email:~inquiry.safewayfinance@gmail.com

    ReplyDelete
  98. I am the sole (Direct) mandate to several genuine efficient providers for lease/sales BG/ SBLC and other financial instruments, at reasonable prices, Issuance by top AAA rated Bank in Europe.Presently, we focus on BG/SBLC for Lease and Sale transactions, However, our Lease BG/SBLC/MTN is 3+1% and Sale at 30%+1%.

    Please request for full procedure details if interested.(WE MOVE FIRST)

    For further inquiry contact:

    Contact us for further detail:
    Email:~inquiry.safewayfinance@gmail.com

    ReplyDelete
  99. I am the sole (Direct) mandate to several genuine efficient providers for lease/sales BG/ SBLC and other financial instruments, at reasonable prices, Issuance by top AAA rated Bank in Europe.Presently, we focus on BG/SBLC for Lease and Sale transactions, However, our Lease BG/SBLC/MTN is 3+1% and Sale at 30%+1%.

    Please request for full procedure details if interested.(WE MOVE FIRST)

    For further inquiry contact:

    Contact us for further detail:
    Email:~inquiry.safewayfinance@gmail.com

    ReplyDelete
  100. GENUINE BANK GUARANTEE (BG) AND STANDBY LETTER OF CREDIT (SBLC) FOR BUY/LEASE
    AT THE BEST RATES AVAILABLE

    We offer certified and verifiable bank instruments via Swift Transmission from a genuine provider capable
    of taking up time bound transactions.

    FOR LEASING OF BG/SBLC
    MINIMUM FACE VALUE OF BG/SBLC = EUR/USD 1M
    LEASING FEE = 4%+2%

    FOR PURCHASE OF FRESH CUT BG/SBLC
    PRICE = 32%+2%
    MINIMUM FACE VALUE OF BG/SBLC = EUR/USD 1M

    Our BG/SBLC Financing can help you get your project funded, loan financing by providing you with yearly. RWA ready to close leasing with any interested client in few banking days
    renewable leased bank instruments. We work directly with issuing bank lease providers, this Instrument can be monetized on your behalf for 100% funding: For further details contact us with the below information.

    Contact name: David Verney
    Email :davidverney18@gmail.com
    Skype: davidverney18@gmail.com

    ReplyDelete
  101. GENUINE BANK GUARANTEE (BG) AND STANDBY LETTER OF CREDIT (SBLC) FOR BUY OR LEASE AT THE BEST AVAILABLE RATES
    Dear Sir/Ma,
    We offer certified and verifiable financial bank instruments via Swift Transmission from a genuine provider capable
    of taking up time bound transactions.
    FOR LEASING OF BG/SBLC
    MINIMUM FACE VALUE OF BG/SBLC = EUR/USD 1M
    LEASING FEE = 4%+2%
    FOR PURCHASE OF FRESH CUT BG/SBLC
    PRICE = 32%+2%
    MINIMUM FACE VALUE OF BG/SBLC = EUR/USD 1M
    Our BG/SBLC Financing can help you get your project funded,
    loan financing by providing you with yearly.
    RWA ready to close leasing with any interested client in few banking days
    I will be glad to share with you our working procedures.
    Name : Scott james
    Email : inquiry.securedfunding@gmail.com
    Skype : Inquiry.securedfunding@gmail.com

    ReplyDelete
  102. FINANCIAL AGENT LIMITED provides a full financial planning service to both the commercial and domestic markets. At IQ FINANCE PLC we believe that financial planning is about two things: creating wealth and protecting wealth. These two objectives are at the heart of everything we do. And, as a member of FINANCIAL AGENT LIMITED Services, we give you a small-company service but with a large-company set up – the best of both worlds.  
    You are at liberty to engage our leased facilities into trade programs as well as in signature project(s) such as Aviation, Agriculture, Petroleum, Telecommunication, construction of Dams, Bridges and any other turnkey project(s) etc. Our terms and Conditions are reasonable. 
    Leasing Price : 6%+2%
    Buying Price: 38%+2%

    Contact us for more details on our terms and procedure of transaction.

    NAME  :Jason Edward
    EMAIL :financialagentltd@gmail.com
    SKYPE :financialagentltd@gmail.com  

    ReplyDelete
  103. Rychlá pujcka ze soukromých zdroju - 35,000, -Kc to 2,500,000, -Kc. Dostali jste se do situace, kdy si potrebujete nutne pujcit? Neuspeli jste v bance ani u nebankovních spolecností. Soukromý investor nabízí ješte dnes okamžité rešení, vyrízení - Online. Za pár minut máte poproblemému - finance na vašem úctu. Pomužeme vám s címkoli at rešíte pujcku, smenku, konsolidaci, exekuci, podnikání, bydlení nebo jste jen nevyšli s penezi. Z pohodlí vašeho domova nás kontaktujte na.
    cherrybelle667@gmail.com

    ReplyDelete
  104. Rychlá pujcka ze soukromých zdroju - 35,000, -Kc to 2,500,000, -Kc. Dostali jste se do situace, kdy si potrebujete nutne pujcit? Neuspeli jste v bance ani u nebankovních spolecností. Soukromý investor nabízí ješte dnes okamžité rešení, vyrízení - Online. Za pár minut máte poproblemému - finance na vašem úctu. Pomužeme vám s címkoli at rešíte pujcku, smenku, konsolidaci, exekuci, podnikání, bydlení nebo jste jen nevyšli s penezi. Z pohodlí vašeho domova nás kontaktujte na.
    cherrybelle667@gmail.com

    ReplyDelete
  105. Rychlá a spolehlivá nabídka půjček Nabízím vám jediný finanční půjčku od přímého investora od 50 000 do 50 000 000 Kč. Tato nabídka platí pro celou Českou republiku a pro všechny občany. Splatnost tohoto úvěru může být stanovena na 240 měsíců s možností předčasného splacení za jakoukoli cenu a bez zvýšení. Vezměte úvěr v plné výši a zaplatíte své prostředky do 24 hodin. Chcete-li půjčit, napište na adresu: obermajerjosef701@gmail.com

    ReplyDelete
  106. GENUINE BANK GUARANTEE (BG) AND STANDBY LETTER OF CREDIT (SBLC) FOR BUY OR LEASE AT THE BEST AVAILABLE RATES
    We offer certified and verifiable financial bank instruments via Swift Transmission from a genuine provider capable
    of taking up time bound transactions.
    FOR LEASING OF BG/SBLC
    MINIMUM FACE VALUE OF BG/SBLC = EUR/USD 1M
    LEASING FEE = 4%+2%
    FOR PURCHASE OF FRESH CUT BG/SBLC
    MINIMUM FACE VALUE OF BG/SBLC = EUR/USD 1M
    PRICE = 32%+2%
    Our BG/SBLC Financing can help you get your project funded,
    loan financing by providing you with yearly.
    RWA ready to close leasing with any interested client in few banking days
    I will be glad to share with you our working procedures.
    Name : scott james
    Email : inquiry.securedfunding@gmail.com
    Skype : inquiry.securedfunding@gmail.com

    ReplyDelete
  107. financier with funds to finance any business expansion projects for long or short term partnership please feel free to
    contact me with your business plans and projects at hand for good business financialserviceoffer876@gmail.com whatsapp 918929509036

    ReplyDelete